Pavline Capital Fixed Income Market
Market Intelligence

Pavline Capital Fixed Income Weekly Update

4th – 8th May, 2026

Weekly fixed income market update covering liquidity movement, NTB market activity, FGN bond performance, Eurobond sentiment, FX conditions, and expectations for the next trading week.

Money Market

Money market liquidity opened the week on a softer note as funding pressure increased following prior settlement obligations. However, inflows from maturities helped ease pressure toward midweek, allowing system liquidity to recover gradually. Balances moved from ₦2.84 trillion on Monday to ₦4.76 trillion by Friday.

Funding rates remained elevated early in the week before moderating slightly as liquidity improved. The Open Repo Rate traded around 22.00%, while the Overnight rate moved between 22.18% and 22.35%.

Expectation:

We expect liquidity conditions to improve gradually if maturity inflows remain supportive, although CBN activity could moderate the surplus.

System Liquidity Trend This Week (₦bn)

4,760 3,570 2,380 1,190 0 Mon Tue Wed Thurs Fri

Sources: CBN, Pavline Capital Research

T

Treasury Bills

The NTB secondary market traded on a quiet-to-mildly bullish note, supported by selective demand from investors seeking duration exposure. Demand was most visible at the long end of the curve, while shorter maturities remained relatively flat.

Investors remained cautious ahead of primary market guidance, but improved liquidity supported modest buying across benchmark maturities. Consequently, average benchmark yield declined by 8bps w/w to close at 17.35%.

Expectation:

We expect moderate demand in the next session, especially around longer maturities, as investors continue to seek attractive yield levels.

Change in NTB Yield (Week-on-Week)

Previous week This week
20.0% 18.5% 17.0% 15.5% 14.0% NTB 23-Apr-26 NTB 21-May-26 NTB 18-Jun-26 NTB 16-Jul-26 NTB 13-Aug-26 NTB 10-Sep-26 NTB 8-Oct-26 NTB 5-Nov-26 NTB 3-Dec-26 NTB 7-Jan-27

Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research

T-Bills Closing Rates

Maturity Discount Yield (%) Change (%)
NTB 23-Apr-26 16.14 16.20 -0.04
NTB 21-May-26 15.50 15.74 -0.06
NTB 18-Jun-26 15.44 15.92 -0.08
NTB 16-Jul-26 15.52 16.22 -0.07
NTB 13-Aug-26 15.70 16.56 -0.08
NTB 10-Sep-26 15.76 16.84 -0.09
NTB 8-Oct-26 15.92 17.20 -0.08
NTB 5-Nov-26 16.00 17.55 -0.07
NTB 3-Dec-26 15.98 17.80 -0.08
NTB 7-Jan-27 16.05 18.21 -0.09
F

FGN Bonds

The FGN bond market was mostly subdued, with limited trading volumes across benchmark papers. Demand was selective, as investors continued to balance duration appetite against inflation and policy-rate expectations.

Longer-dated securities saw modest interest, while mid-curve bonds traded with limited movement. The average benchmark yield declined marginally by 3bps w/w to close at 15.55%.

Expectation:

We expect the bond market to remain range-bound, with selective demand driven by yield levels and portfolio positioning.

FGN Bond Yield Curve

17.0 16.3 15.5 14.8 14.0 13.98 23-FEB-2028 21.00 20-MAR-2028 19.30 17-APR-2029 14.55 26-APR-2029 18.50 21-FEB-2031 12.50 27-APR-2032 19.89 15-MAY-2033 19.00 21-FEB-2034 12.50 27-MAR-2035 12.40 18-MAR-2036 16.2499 18-APR-2037 15.70 21-JUN-2053

Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research

Bonds Closing Prices

Maturity Closing Price Yield (%) Change (%)
13.98 23-FEB-2028 96.42 16.42 -0.05
21.00 20-MAR-2028 108.54 15.61 -0.06
19.30 17-APR-2029 106.40 16.42 -0.05
14.55 26-APR-2029 96.32 16.08 -0.06
18.50 21-FEB-2031 106.22 16.50 -0.04
12.50 27-APR-2032 84.55 16.65 -0.07
19.89 15-MAY-2033 114.02 16.35 -0.06
19.00 21-FEB-2034 111.58 16.20 -0.06
12.50 27-MAR-2035 84.05 15.82 -0.04
12.40 18-MAR-2036 87.75 14.70 -0.05
16.2499 18-APR-2037 105.45 15.12 -0.04
15.70 21-JUN-2053 107.15 14.48 -0.06
FX

Foreign Exchange

The foreign exchange market traded with mild volatility during the week, as demand remained steady while supply conditions improved marginally. The naira traded within the ₦1,374–₦1,389 range, with some pressure seen in early sessions before stabilising toward the end of the week.

Market participants continued to monitor reserve accretion, crude oil prices, and official intervention activity.

Expectation:

We expect the naira to remain sensitive to dollar supply, oil price direction, and market intervention flows.

Naira Movement This Week (₦/$)

1,392.0 1,386.8 1,381.5 1,376.3 1,371.0 Mon Tue Wed Thurs Fri

Sources: CBN, Pavline Capital Research

E

FGN Eurobonds

The Nigerian Eurobond market traded on a mixed note as investors assessed global risk sentiment and U.S. yield movement. Early pressure was seen across longer maturities, but buying interest improved later in the week as sentiment stabilised.

The short end remained better supported, while longer-duration papers traded selectively. Consequently, average benchmark yield closed slightly higher by 4bps w/w at 6.87%.

Expectation:

We expect a cautious tone, with investor focus on global rates, oil prices, and sovereign risk appetite.

Eurobonds Closing Prices

Nigerian Sovereigns Bid YTM (%) Offer YTM (%) Bid Price Offer Price
6.5 NIGERIA NOV 2027 100.85 101.72 5.95 5.38
6.125 NIGERIA SEP 2028 100.48 101.63 5.94 5.40
8.375 NIGERIA MAR 2029 106.60 107.55 5.90 5.50
7.143 NIGERIA FEB 2030 102.80 103.45 6.31 6.12
8.747 NIGERIA JAN 2031 107.92 108.70 6.74 6.52
9.625 NIGERIA JUN 2031 111.90 112.50 6.78 6.65
7.875 NIGERIA FEB 2032 104.80 105.62 6.86 6.68
10.375 NIGERIA DEC 2034 118.70 119.52 7.35 7.20
8.6308 NIGERIA JAN 2036 108.70 109.50 7.30 7.15
7.625 NIGERIA NOV 2047 96.42 97.38 7.96 7.84
8.25 NIGERIA SEP 2051 100.92 101.72 8.15 8.04
O

Market Outlook

The market is expected to remain guided by liquidity conditions, auction expectations, and investor positioning across money market and fixed income instruments. Portfolio managers are likely to remain selective while monitoring macroeconomic and policy developments.

Key Takeaways

  • Money market liquidity recovered gradually after opening the week on a softer note.
  • Treasury bills traded quietly but showed mild bullish interest at the long end.
  • FGN bonds remained range-bound as investors balanced duration appetite with macro expectations.
  • Eurobonds traded mixed, with late-week sentiment improving after initial pressure.
  • The next trading week is expected to remain guided by liquidity, auction expectations, and global risk sentiment.

Sources

FMDQ, CBN, Pavline Capital Research

Contact Dealing Desk

For fixed income trading and advisory enquiries.

+234 706 470 0921 fixedincome@pavlinecapital.com