Pavline Capital Fixed Income Market
Market Intelligence

Pavline Capital Fixed Income Weekly Update

11th – 15th May, 2026

Weekly fixed income market update covering money market liquidity, treasury bills, FGN bonds, Eurobonds, foreign exchange movement, and market expectations.

Money Market

System liquidity improved during the week, supported by OMO maturity inflows and moderate interbank activity. Funding conditions remained relatively stable, although short-term rates adjusted slightly as market participants positioned ahead of auction settlements. Liquidity opened the week around ₦3.92 trillion and rose steadily before closing at ₦5.48 trillion by Friday.

The Open Repo Rate remained anchored around 22.00%, while the Overnight rate traded within a tight band of 22.10% to 22.28%. Market activity was largely driven by liquidity positioning, maturities, and expectations around the next NTB auction.

Expectation:

We expect liquidity to remain supportive in the near term, with funding rates guided by OMO maturities, auction settlement flows, and CBN sterilisation activity.

System Liquidity Trend This Week (₦bn)

5,480 4,110 2,740 1,370 0 Mon Tue Wed Thurs Fri

Sources: CBN, Pavline Capital Research

T

Treasury Bills

The NTB secondary market traded on a mildly bullish note during the week as liquidity supported selective demand across the mid-to-long end of the curve. Buying interest was strongest around the one-year paper, while shorter maturities traded with limited movement.

Stop-rate expectations remained a key driver of investor positioning, with demand tilted toward instruments offering higher carry and better reinvestment value. Consequently, average benchmark yield declined marginally by 5bps w/w to close at 17.42%.

Expectation:

We expect a moderately active session, with demand likely concentrated around longer-dated NTBs while investors continue to monitor liquidity and auction pricing.

Change in NTB Yield (Week-on-Week)

Previous week This week
20.0% 18.5% 17.0% 15.5% 14.0% NTB 30-Apr-26 NTB 28-May-26 NTB 25-Jun-26 NTB 23-Jul-26 NTB 20-Aug-26 NTB 17-Sep-26 NTB 15-Oct-26 NTB 12-Nov-26 NTB 10-Dec-26 NTB 14-Jan-27

Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research

T-Bills Closing Rates

Maturity Discount Yield (%) Change (%)
NTB 30-Apr-26 16.21 16.28 -0.02
NTB 28-May-26 15.61 15.86 -0.03
NTB 25-Jun-26 15.54 16.06 -0.04
NTB 23-Jul-26 15.63 16.38 -0.05
NTB 20-Aug-26 15.81 16.75 -0.04
NTB 17-Sep-26 15.84 16.98 -0.03
NTB 15-Oct-26 16.08 17.42 -0.05
NTB 12-Nov-26 16.13 17.75 -0.06
NTB 10-Dec-26 16.04 17.90 -0.04
NTB 14-Jan-27 16.10 18.32 -0.05
F

FGN Bonds

The FGN bond secondary market traded with mixed sentiment during the week. Early sessions saw cautious demand as investors assessed inflation expectations and auction supply. However, selective buying emerged on longer-dated instruments, particularly where yields offered attractive entry levels.

Activity remained moderate overall, with the short-to-mid segment seeing mild sell pressure while longer maturities were better supported. The average benchmark yield rose slightly by 6bps w/w to close at 15.61%.

Expectation:

We expect cautious trading to persist, with investors focusing on auction outcomes, liquidity conditions, and inflation expectations.

FGN Bond Yield Curve

18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.98 23-FEB-2028 21.00 20-MAR-2028 19.30 17-APR-2029 14.55 26-APR-2029 18.50 21-FEB-2031 12.50 27-APR-2032 19.89 15-MAY-2033 19.00 21-FEB-2034 12.50 27-MAR-2035 12.40 18-MAR-2036 16.2499 18-APR-2037 15.70 21-JUN-2053

Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research

Bonds Closing Prices

Maturity Closing Price Yield (%) Change (%)
13.98 23-FEB-2028 96.10 16.58 -0.13
21.00 20-MAR-2028 108.30 15.74 -0.14
19.30 17-APR-2029 106.14 16.59 0.08
14.55 26-APR-2029 96.00 16.25 0.08
18.50 21-FEB-2031 106.02 16.58 -0.07
12.50 27-APR-2032 84.12 16.80 0.08
19.89 15-MAY-2033 113.70 16.48 -0.13
19.00 21-FEB-2034 111.30 16.32 -0.13
12.50 27-MAR-2035 83.70 15.95 -0.13
12.40 18-MAR-2036 87.40 14.82 -0.13
16.2499 18-APR-2037 105.20 15.20 -0.11
15.70 21-JUN-2053 106.80 14.60 -0.13
FX

Foreign Exchange

The naira traded within a relatively stable range during the week, supported by improved market supply and steady demand conditions. Trading activity was concentrated around the ₦1,360–₦1,372 band, with modest appreciation pressure seen toward the end of the week.

External reserves remained supportive, while market participants continued to monitor oil prices and dollar liquidity conditions.

Expectation:

We expect the naira to trade within a controlled range, with direction influenced by market supply, oil price movement, and intervention flows.

Naira Movement This Week (₦/$)

1,374.0 1,370.0 1,366.0 1,362.0 1,358.0 Mon Tue Wed Thurs Fri

Sources: CBN, Pavline Capital Research

E

FGN Eurobonds

The Nigerian Eurobond market traded on a mildly positive note as improved global risk appetite supported buying across select sovereign papers. Sentiment was aided by firmer crude oil prices and moderation in U.S. Treasury yields.

Demand was more visible across short-to-mid duration papers, while longer maturities saw selective positioning. Consequently, average benchmark yield declined by 9bps w/w to close at 6.78%.

Expectation:

We expect a cautiously constructive tone, with investor sentiment guided by global risk appetite, oil prices, and U.S. rate expectations.

Eurobonds Closing Prices

Nigerian Sovereigns Bid YTM (%) Offer YTM (%) Bid Price Offer Price
6.5 NIGERIA NOV 2027 101.05 101.95 5.82 5.28
6.125 NIGERIA SEP 2028 100.70 101.88 5.80 5.30
8.375 NIGERIA MAR 2029 106.88 107.85 5.76 5.36
7.143 NIGERIA FEB 2030 103.02 103.70 6.18 5.98
8.747 NIGERIA JAN 2031 108.10 108.90 6.62 6.41
9.625 NIGERIA JUN 2031 112.14 112.74 6.68 6.55
7.875 NIGERIA FEB 2032 105.05 105.86 6.75 6.58
10.375 NIGERIA DEC 2034 118.95 119.74 7.22 7.10
8.6308 NIGERIA JAN 2036 108.92 109.74 7.18 7.06
7.625 NIGERIA NOV 2047 96.80 97.72 7.82 7.70
8.25 NIGERIA SEP 2051 101.20 102.04 8.02 7.92
O

Market Outlook

The coming week is expected to be shaped by liquidity conditions, CBN activity, auction expectations, and global risk sentiment. Investors are likely to remain selective, focusing on yield pick-up, duration positioning, and liquidity-driven opportunities.

Key Takeaways

  • System liquidity improved during the week, supported by OMO maturity inflows.
  • Treasury bills traded mildly bullish, with demand concentrated around longer-dated papers.
  • FGN bonds traded mixed as investors assessed inflation expectations and auction supply.
  • Eurobond sentiment improved as global risk appetite strengthened and oil prices remained supportive.
  • Next week’s market direction is expected to remain liquidity-driven and auction-sensitive.

Sources

FMDQ, CBN, Pavline Capital Research

Contact Dealing Desk

For fixed income trading and advisory enquiries.

+234 706 470 0921 fixedincome@pavlinecapital.com