Pavline Capital Fixed Income Weekly Update
4th – 8th May, 2026
Weekly fixed income market update covering liquidity movement, NTB market activity, FGN bond performance, Eurobond sentiment, FX conditions, and expectations for the next trading week.
Money Market
Money market liquidity opened the week on a softer note as funding pressure increased following prior settlement obligations. However, inflows from maturities helped ease pressure toward midweek, allowing system liquidity to recover gradually. Balances moved from ₦2.84 trillion on Monday to ₦4.76 trillion by Friday.
Funding rates remained elevated early in the week before moderating slightly as liquidity improved. The Open Repo Rate traded around 22.00%, while the Overnight rate moved between 22.18% and 22.35%.
We expect liquidity conditions to improve gradually if maturity inflows remain supportive, although CBN activity could moderate the surplus.
System Liquidity Trend This Week (₦bn)
Sources: CBN, Pavline Capital Research
Treasury Bills
The NTB secondary market traded on a quiet-to-mildly bullish note, supported by selective demand from investors seeking duration exposure. Demand was most visible at the long end of the curve, while shorter maturities remained relatively flat.
Investors remained cautious ahead of primary market guidance, but improved liquidity supported modest buying across benchmark maturities. Consequently, average benchmark yield declined by 8bps w/w to close at 17.35%.
We expect moderate demand in the next session, especially around longer maturities, as investors continue to seek attractive yield levels.
Change in NTB Yield (Week-on-Week)
Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research
T-Bills Closing Rates
| Maturity | Discount | Yield (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTB 23-Apr-26 | 16.14 | 16.20 | -0.04 |
| NTB 21-May-26 | 15.50 | 15.74 | -0.06 |
| NTB 18-Jun-26 | 15.44 | 15.92 | -0.08 |
| NTB 16-Jul-26 | 15.52 | 16.22 | -0.07 |
| NTB 13-Aug-26 | 15.70 | 16.56 | -0.08 |
| NTB 10-Sep-26 | 15.76 | 16.84 | -0.09 |
| NTB 8-Oct-26 | 15.92 | 17.20 | -0.08 |
| NTB 5-Nov-26 | 16.00 | 17.55 | -0.07 |
| NTB 3-Dec-26 | 15.98 | 17.80 | -0.08 |
| NTB 7-Jan-27 | 16.05 | 18.21 | -0.09 |
FGN Bonds
The FGN bond market was mostly subdued, with limited trading volumes across benchmark papers. Demand was selective, as investors continued to balance duration appetite against inflation and policy-rate expectations.
Longer-dated securities saw modest interest, while mid-curve bonds traded with limited movement. The average benchmark yield declined marginally by 3bps w/w to close at 15.55%.
We expect the bond market to remain range-bound, with selective demand driven by yield levels and portfolio positioning.
FGN Bond Yield Curve
Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research
Bonds Closing Prices
| Maturity | Closing Price | Yield (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.98 23-FEB-2028 | 96.42 | 16.42 | -0.05 |
| 21.00 20-MAR-2028 | 108.54 | 15.61 | -0.06 |
| 19.30 17-APR-2029 | 106.40 | 16.42 | -0.05 |
| 14.55 26-APR-2029 | 96.32 | 16.08 | -0.06 |
| 18.50 21-FEB-2031 | 106.22 | 16.50 | -0.04 |
| 12.50 27-APR-2032 | 84.55 | 16.65 | -0.07 |
| 19.89 15-MAY-2033 | 114.02 | 16.35 | -0.06 |
| 19.00 21-FEB-2034 | 111.58 | 16.20 | -0.06 |
| 12.50 27-MAR-2035 | 84.05 | 15.82 | -0.04 |
| 12.40 18-MAR-2036 | 87.75 | 14.70 | -0.05 |
| 16.2499 18-APR-2037 | 105.45 | 15.12 | -0.04 |
| 15.70 21-JUN-2053 | 107.15 | 14.48 | -0.06 |
Foreign Exchange
The foreign exchange market traded with mild volatility during the week, as demand remained steady while supply conditions improved marginally. The naira traded within the ₦1,374–₦1,389 range, with some pressure seen in early sessions before stabilising toward the end of the week.
Market participants continued to monitor reserve accretion, crude oil prices, and official intervention activity.
We expect the naira to remain sensitive to dollar supply, oil price direction, and market intervention flows.
Naira Movement This Week (₦/$)
Sources: CBN, Pavline Capital Research
FGN Eurobonds
The Nigerian Eurobond market traded on a mixed note as investors assessed global risk sentiment and U.S. yield movement. Early pressure was seen across longer maturities, but buying interest improved later in the week as sentiment stabilised.
The short end remained better supported, while longer-duration papers traded selectively. Consequently, average benchmark yield closed slightly higher by 4bps w/w at 6.87%.
We expect a cautious tone, with investor focus on global rates, oil prices, and sovereign risk appetite.
Eurobonds Closing Prices
| Nigerian Sovereigns | Bid YTM (%) | Offer YTM (%) | Bid Price | Offer Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 NIGERIA NOV 2027 | 100.85 | 101.72 | 5.95 | 5.38 |
| 6.125 NIGERIA SEP 2028 | 100.48 | 101.63 | 5.94 | 5.40 |
| 8.375 NIGERIA MAR 2029 | 106.60 | 107.55 | 5.90 | 5.50 |
| 7.143 NIGERIA FEB 2030 | 102.80 | 103.45 | 6.31 | 6.12 |
| 8.747 NIGERIA JAN 2031 | 107.92 | 108.70 | 6.74 | 6.52 |
| 9.625 NIGERIA JUN 2031 | 111.90 | 112.50 | 6.78 | 6.65 |
| 7.875 NIGERIA FEB 2032 | 104.80 | 105.62 | 6.86 | 6.68 |
| 10.375 NIGERIA DEC 2034 | 118.70 | 119.52 | 7.35 | 7.20 |
| 8.6308 NIGERIA JAN 2036 | 108.70 | 109.50 | 7.30 | 7.15 |
| 7.625 NIGERIA NOV 2047 | 96.42 | 97.38 | 7.96 | 7.84 |
| 8.25 NIGERIA SEP 2051 | 100.92 | 101.72 | 8.15 | 8.04 |
Market Outlook
The market is expected to remain guided by liquidity conditions, auction expectations, and investor positioning across money market and fixed income instruments. Portfolio managers are likely to remain selective while monitoring macroeconomic and policy developments.
Key Takeaways
- Money market liquidity recovered gradually after opening the week on a softer note.
- Treasury bills traded quietly but showed mild bullish interest at the long end.
- FGN bonds remained range-bound as investors balanced duration appetite with macro expectations.
- Eurobonds traded mixed, with late-week sentiment improving after initial pressure.
- The next trading week is expected to remain guided by liquidity, auction expectations, and global risk sentiment.
Sources
FMDQ, CBN, Pavline Capital Research
Contact Dealing Desk
For fixed income trading and advisory enquiries.
+234 706 470 0921 fixedincome@pavlinecapital.com