Pav-Capital Fixed Income Daily Update
Tuesday, 26 May, 2026
Fixed income market update covering treasury bills, FGN bonds, FGN Eurobonds, foreign exchange movement, closing rates, and market expectations.
Treasury Bills
Last week, the NTB secondary market traded on a mixed note during the week, as sentiment oscillated between a mild bullish bias and cautious positioning ahead of the NTB PMA. Early in the week, demand was supported by ample system liquidity, particularly at the long end. However, this weakened pre-auction, with sell pressure emerging on select maturities. Post-auction, activity improved slightly, driven by demand for the newly issued 1-year paper as investors covered unmet bids.
System liquidity remained in surplus, albeit fluctuating, with funding conditions relatively stable. The average funding rate rose marginally by 2bps w/w to 22.10%, while the OPR and O/N rates settled at 22.00% and 22.20%, respectively.
Consequently, the average benchmark yield closed flat w/w at 17.47%.
We expect a mildly active session, with demand likely centered on the 1-year paper, while overall activity remains guided by prevailing liquidity conditions.
Change in NTB Yield (Week-on-Week)
Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research
T-Bills Closing Rates
| Maturity | Discount | Yield (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTB 7-May-26 | 16.33 | 16.43 | 0.00 |
| NTB 4-Jun-26 | 15.72 | 16.00 | -0.01 |
| NTB 9-Jul-26 | 15.68 | 16.21 | -0.01 |
| NTB 6-Aug-26 | 15.77 | 16.51 | -0.01 |
| NTB 3-Sep-26 | 15.95 | 16.93 | -0.01 |
| NTB 8-Oct-26 | 15.94 | 17.19 | -0.01 |
| NTB 5-Nov-26 | 16.30 | 17.85 | -0.01 |
| NTB 3-Dec-26 | 16.17 | 17.94 | -0.01 |
| NTB 7-Jan-27 | 16.27 | 18.39 | -0.01 |
| NTB 4-Feb-27 | 16.22 | 18.58 | -0.01 |
| NTB 4-Mar-27 | 16.11 | 18.70 | 0.03 |
FGN Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a predominantly bearish note during the week, pressured by persistent global risk-off sentiment and cautious positioning ahead of the bond auction. Sell-offs were evident across the curve, particularly at the short to mid segment, with yields repricing higher amid limited demand. Activity remained subdued overall, with only selective buying interest observed on longer-dated papers.
Consequently, the average benchmark yield rose by 14bps w/w to close at 15.73%.
We expect a cautious to bearish tone, as investors position around the bond PMA, with activity remaining selective.
FGN Bond Yield Curve
Sources: FMDQ, Pavline Capital Research
Bonds Closing Prices
| Maturity | Closing Price | Yield (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.98 23-FEB-2028 | 95.77 | 16.71 | 0.00 |
| 21.00 20-MAR-2028 | 108.07 | 15.88 | 0.03 |
| 19.30 17-APR-2029 | 106.35 | 16.51 | -0.01 |
| 14.55 26-APR-2029 | 96.25 | 16.17 | 0.16 |
| 18.50 21-FEB-2031 | 105.88 | 16.65 | 0.05 |
| 12.50 27-APR-2032 | 84.36 | 16.72 | 0.09 |
| 19.89 15-MAY-2033 | 113.29 | 16.61 | -0.10 |
| 19.00 21-FEB-2034 | 110.91 | 16.45 | 0.17 |
| 12.1493 18-JUL-2034 | 81.37 | 16.33 | 0.18 |
| 12.50 27-MAR-2035 | 83.32 | 16.08 | 0.00 |
| 12.40 18-MAR-2036 | 86.99 | 14.95 | 0.00 |
| 16.2499 18-APR-2037 | 104.90 | 15.31 | 0.00 |
| 15.45 21-JUN-2038 | 101.06 | 15.24 | 0.00 |
| 13.00 21-JAN-2042 | 93.24 | 14.07 | -0.01 |
| 14.80 26-APR-2049 | 102.04 | 14.49 | 0.03 |
| 12.98 27-MAR-2050 | 89.59 | 14.54 | 0.15 |
| 15.70 21-JUN-2053 | 106.37 | 14.73 | 0.25 |
FGN Eurobonds
The Nigerian Eurobond market traded on a cautious to mildly bullish note during the week, as early pressure from heightened geopolitical tensions and a firmer U.S. dollar gave way to improved sentiment later in the week. Buying interest emerged on the back of rising oil prices, a softer dollar, and easing policy concerns, supporting a recovery across the curve.
Consequently, the average benchmark yield declined by 7bps w/w to close at 6.85%.
We expect a cautiously positive tone, with investor sentiment guided by global risk dynamics and oil price movements.
Eurobonds Closing Prices
| Nigerian Sovereigns | Bid YTM (%) | Offer YTM (%) | Bid Price | Offer Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 NIGERIA NOV 2027 | 100.63 | 101.59 | 6.07 | 5.44 |
| 6.125 NIGERIA SEP 2028 | 100.25 | 101.47 | 6.01 | 5.47 |
| 8.375 NIGERIA MAR 2029 | 106.26 | 107.39 | 6.00 | 5.59 |
| 7.143 NIGERIA FEB 2030 | 102.65 | 103.24 | 6.35 | 6.18 |
| 8.747 NIGERIA JAN 2031 | 107.64 | 108.60 | 6.83 | 6.60 |
| 9.625 NIGERIA JUN 2031 | 111.76 | 112.38 | 6.86 | 6.73 |
| 7.875 NIGERIA FEB 2032 | 104.55 | 105.39 | 6.91 | 6.74 |
| 7.375 NIGERIA SEP 2033 | 101.49 | 102.65 | 7.11 | 6.91 |
| 10.375 NIGERIA DEC 2034 | 118.47 | 119.33 | 7.43 | 7.31 |
| 8.6308 NIGERIA JAN 2036 | 108.50 | 109.18 | 7.39 | 7.29 |
| 7.696 NIGERIA FEB 2038 | 101.24 | 102.28 | 7.53 | 7.40 |
| 9.1297 NIGERIA JAN 2046 | 109.41 | 110.33 | 8.16 | 8.07 |
| 7.625 NIGERIA NOV 2047 | 96.15 | 97.15 | 8.00 | 7.90 |
| 9.248 NIGERIA JAN 2049 | 111.30 | 112.29 | 8.15 | 8.06 |
| 8.25 NIGERIA SEP 2051 | 100.49 | 101.53 | 8.20 | 8.11 |
Key Takeaways
- Treasury bills traded on a mixed note, with demand supported by system liquidity but moderated by auction positioning.
- The newly issued 1-year NTB attracted post-auction demand from investors covering unmet bids.
- FGN bonds traded mostly bearish as global risk-off sentiment and cautious positioning weighed on the curve.
- FGN Eurobonds recovered later in the week, supported by firmer oil prices, a softer dollar, and improved sentiment.
- Next session activity is expected to remain guided by liquidity, auction outcomes, global risk dynamics, and oil price movements.
Sources
FMDQ, CBN, Pavline Capital Research
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For fixed income trading and advisory enquiries.
+234 706 470 0921 fixedincome@pavlinecapital.com